India's People Power

On this World Population Day, July 11, 2024, two demographic events received worldwide attention. One, the United Nations noted that after an expected peak of about 10 billion, the global population will start a slow decline before the turn of the century. Two, India’s population (1.45 billion) surpassed that of China in 2024 and will continue to be the world’s most populated country this century, with the total population anticipated to hit 1.67 billion by 2050.

The Indian government aptly recognized the anticipated population increase would put pressure on limited resources and launched a family planning program in 1952 to control population growth and improve maternal health.

According to India’s 1951 population census, there were 361 million people residing in the country and estimated birth and death rates of 45 and 25 per 1,000 population respectively, considered huge in comparison to almost every other country at that time. Life expectancy at birth was estimated at 35 years. Fertility remained high and hovered around six children per woman until 1971. Consequently, India had a young population with a median age of just 20 years. Improved sanitation and public health, access to medical care, and better control of epidemics and diseases caused India’s population to grow between 2 and 2.5% every year since the 1970s, reaching 1.027 billion by 2001, a three-fold increase over 50 years.

Shortly after gaining independence from Britain in 1947, the Indian government aptly recognized the anticipated population increase would put pressure on limited resources and launched a family planning program in 1952 to control population growth and improve maternal health which, at that time, recorded 2,000 maternal deaths for every 100,000 live births. The government tried to lower fertility by setting method-specific contraceptive targets and directing the field-based functionaries to achieve them, but these efforts had little impact in a country where more than 80% of the population lived in rural areas and had little to no education. Recognizing that without overall socioeconomic development, family planning methods would not be used by the masses, the Indian delegation famously stated that “development is the best contraceptive” at the 1974 World Population Conference held in Budapest. Despite that statement, the family planning program became more coercive, especially during India’s 21-month emergency from June 1975 to March 1977, when a mass sterilization campaign was enacted out of fear that the progress made in the agricultural and industrial sectors would be nullified if India’s population continued to grow at around 2% per year.

The 1990s were marked by two major changes in India’s population dynamics. First, in preparation for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development, health activists, women’s groups, and researchers documented that contraceptive target setting, centralized planning, and poor training of family care workers were doing a disservice to Indian families without helping to attain demographic goals. Second, Indian couples began to recognize the advantages of small families. Their aspirations for better health care and higher education for their children prompted many to have only two or three children. That trend remains and today, almost 82% of women and men stated that they did not want more than two children. Accordingly, the total fertility rate fell to 2.0, below the replacement level of 2.1. India’s population growth rate also fell, from just over 2% a year from 1981-1991 to 1.35% in 2011. In 2020, it was estimated at less than 1%.

India’s demographically advanced southern states cannot be allowed to feel they are being penalized by the center for doing well economically and keeping their population growth rates low.

Equally important is that poor maternal health in the early years of the previous century resulted in lower life expectancy for women. This anomalous situation reversed after 1990 and today, Indian women live longer than men by almost three years. By 2018, over a span of just 10 years, maternal mortality was more than halved. This was largely possible because of an increase in institutional deliveries, a decline in teenage pregnancy, and fewer total births; infant mortality also declined dramatically. However, given India’s diversity, differences in all health indicators continue to persist between states and social groups, requiring policy prescriptions and interventions designed to address local situations.

While India is on a path of completing a demographic transition, continued high fertility rates mean the population growth is projected to continue, albeit at an ever-slower pace, for another four decades. Importantly, India reached this stage without any shocks or disturbances that a country like China has experienced, which provides a window into India’s future trajectory to becoming a global power.

Declining Fertility in India and China and the Resulting Age-Sex Structure

Figure 1 shows the total fertility rate of India and China from 1950-2020 and the projected rate through 2050. Government control of marriage age, timing of pregnancy, type of birth control, and strict enforcement of the one-child policy in many provinces and urban areas caused China to experience a very steep fertility decline: from a total fertility rate of around 6 in 1950 to less than 2 by 2000. Even after the one-child policy was lifted in 2015, China’s total fertility rate continued to nosedive to 1.1 children per woman and is not projected to rise. India, on the other hand, saw a steady and relatively smooth decline from around 6 children per woman in 1990 to 2 by 2020 and is projected to hover around 1.8.

Figure 2 shows how the sharp decline in fertility and the fluctuations in the pace of decline affected China’s age and sex structure. From what was already a narrow base of young people in 2000, by 2050 close to 35% of China’s population will be older adults, and around 14% children 14 years or younger. Just about half of working-age people will have to support almost an equal number of old or young dependents. China’s old-age dependency will continue to rise in the coming decades. By comparison, almost 67% of India’s population will be in the working ages by 2050, supporting just 20% who are older adults, and about 18% children.

If India aims to become an advanced economy by 2050, inequalities in education, healthcare, and employment between religious and social groups cannot be allowed to simmer.

India’s 15–29-year-olds constitute nearly 27% of the population and a recent history of high fertility means this percentage will not soon diminish. India’s emergence as the world’s most populous nation gives it a demographic advantage, especially because many other developed countries are experiencing declining birth rates, aging populations, and a smaller workforce—all of which slow economic development. India stands on the cusp of a demographic dividend, a phenomenon where the proportion of working-age people exceeds those who are not in the workforce, providing the country with a potential boost in economic productivity and growth. However, the country faces several challenges that must be addressed in a timely manner, otherwise this demographic advantage can become a liability.

Figure 2: Population Pyramids for China and India, 2000 and 2050

Challenges Ahead

Education and Skills Development

While almost all 6-14 and 15-17-year-olds are enrolled in primary and secondary schools in India, it is important to provide them with quality education and appropriate skills so they can enter the labor force as productive workers. According to the Annual Status of Education Report, almost 75% of fifth graders cannot do simple division and more than half could not read second grade level text in their own language. This raises serious questions about the employability of India’s youth and must be addressed if the country hopes to boost employment and GDP growth and become a superpower. Additionally, a majority of workers will require new skills to meet future demands, while also prioritizing labor-intensive manufacturing to create jobs for the workforce that is less skilled.

Low Participation of Women in Work

A decline in fertility, an increase in education, and urbanization the world over are positively associated with women opting to work. But in India, despite similar trends over the last two decades, female participation in the workforce is only around 25-30%, globally low. According to studies conducted in India, one factor for women’s low participation in India’s workforce is the “motherhood penalty” in which women who have children are expected to devote themselves fully to their domestic responsibilities. Another is a custom in which the male spouse has higher levels of education and income, and the woman is discouraged from working. It is also likely that mechanization of farm and non-farm activities are displacing women from gainful work. In order to harness this potential supply of labor, India must pursue proactive policies to improve support for families and formal institutional structures, facilitate flexible work arrangements, and organize institutional support for childcare, maternity leave, creches, and other policies that will ease women’s ability to work outside the home.

Regional and Social Diversity

India is culturally and regionally diverse with a multitude of languages, religions, social groups. The path to development has not been easy, but if the country aims to attain economic liberalization and encourage entrepreneurship, the tensions resulting from religious-cultural nationalism and regional identity must be addressed. India’s demographically advanced southern states cannot be allowed to feel they are being penalized by the center for doing well economically and keeping their population growth rates low. Similarly, if India aims to become an advanced economy by 2050, inequalities in education, healthcare, and employment between religious and social groups cannot be allowed to simmer.

At this juncture, when comparing India to European countries, the United States, and even China, its demography offers advantages that could allow it to become a very important participant in the global economy. While India is unlikely to match the US in productivity or technological advancement (or China in manufacturing skills), its vast and relatively young human resources can overcome these constraints to help the country attain new heights. It just needs the right mix of policies and an equitable approach toward its entire population.

Dr. Leela Visaria earned her PhD in sociology from Princeton University. Her research interests include historical demography and field-based studies on problems of health, family planning, education, and demographic transition. Visaria is currently an honorary professor at the Gujarat Institute of Development Research.

Cover photo: AP Photo/Gautam Singh.